ILO proposes universal social protection in the face of downgraded labor market recovery forecasts for 2022
26 enero 2022

LABOR

Universal social protection. The latest edition of the ILO’s World Employment and Social Outlook: Trends 2022 downgraded forecasts for labor market recovery in 2022, projecting that global unemployment will remain above pre-coronavirus levels until at least 2023. It is estimated to stand at 207 million unemployed people in 2022, up from 186 million in 2019. The recovery will be uneven in the different regions of the world, with Latin America and the Caribbean being one of the hardest hit and with a slower recovery. In this regard, Guy Ryder, Director General of the ILO, stressed the need to provide a minimum of social protection to those unemployed as a result of the pandemic in order to ensure a sustainable job recovery. The countries of the region could listen to these recommendations and promote measures in the medium term.

With respect to ILO employment estimates, the lowered projections for 2022 reflect the effect that recent variants of the COVID-19 virus, such as Delta and Omicron, are having on the world of work, as well as the significant uncertainty regarding the future course of the pandemic. Experts see difficulty in restoring pre-pandemic labor market conditions in the short term because of changes in the labor market, the rise of on-line services, the sharp rise in business costs and disruptions in labor supply. The asymmetric recovery that has begun to be seen – between high-income and low-income countries, within countries and between sectors of their economies – is already causing “long-term knock-on effects that could derail the recovery.”

The report warns of marked differences in the effects of the crisis between groups of workers and between countries. Recovery patterns are negative in Latin America and the Caribbean compared to the core countries, so they will emerge from the crisis at a slower pace than high-income countries. “It is likely to take several years to repair this damage and there could be long-term consequences on labor force participation, household incomes, social cohesion and, possibly, political cohesion,” said ILO Director Guy Ryder.

In this regard, the report highlights the need to meet the objectives framed in the “Global Call to Action for a People-Centered Recovery”, endorsed at the June 2021 International Labour Conference by government, employer and worker delegates from 181 countries. Among these objectives, an agenda is outlined with specific measures to promote universal social protection. For the development of this public policy, the call defines that this protection must have a minimum income floor defined at the national level that guarantees the basics in terms of income and health.

Next steps

The report and the appeal presented by the ILO could be the starting point for the implementation of labor reforms in the region. In addition to defining minimum social protection, among the changes recommended by the ILO is the establishment of paid sick leave commensurate with the health situation and family leave.

Opportunity for engagement

By generating public policies at the national level, McDonald’s will have to work with the Executive Branches of Latin American countries to influence the implementation of public labor policies carried out by the health emergency. For the permanent strengthening of policies established in pandemic, most countries in the region will have to resort to the parliaments of each State to legislate on the matter, space where McDonald’s will be able to influence in committee meetings and public hearings convened by legislators.

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